Secrets of Professional Tournament Poker, Volume 1 (40 page)

You bet again and he calls. Bet again on any river. Your opponent clearly has a decent hand and will probably call one more bet. If you check with the intention of raising, your opponent will only bet fairly strong hands like top pair, which would have called your bet, and will fold to a raise unless he is the biggest calling station in the world. If he does have a strong hand like a set, he will raise but then just call your check-raise, whereas if you bet and he raises, you can re-raise, usually getting a call, winning you one extra large bet. The only time check-raising gets more money out of your opponent is when he has a total bluff and would have folded to your river bet. Most opponents won’t even try to bluff the river when you show two streets of aggression, so check-raising the river is usually a fairly weak play.

With a strong hand in position, you should basically always bet, as you want to get value. You usually have little fear of a check-raise, and your hand is mostly way ahead of your opponent’s check-calling range.

As the pot gets larger, you need to play your hand more straightforwardly. You’ll usually have a decent idea of your opponent’s hand range by the time you get to the river. Try to make an educated decision in each spot and you can value-bet the river with confidence.

Bet an Amount They Can Call

If you are fairly certain you have the best hand at the river but think your opponent has a very weak hand, such as 9-8 on a K-8-4-3-J board, you should tend to bet a small amount because most opponents will fold to a large bet. It is important to know your opponent. Some players view small bets as weak and tend to call them. Others view large bets as weak and are more likely to fold to small bets. If you think your opponent will call a large bet on the river with a weak pair and you have that beat, by all means, fire a large bet.

Most players have a hard time calling a large bet with a weak hand. Suppose you raise A-Q to 3BBs out of your 200BB stack and a player calls in the small blind. The flop comes Q-9-3. Your opponent checks, you bet 5BBs into the 7BB pot and he calls.

At this point you can narrow his range to most pairs, J-10 and random gutshots like K-J. The turn is a king and you both check. Most players will go for a check-raise on the turn with a straight or two pair and check-call with a king. They will fold all worse hands except maybe Q-10 or Q-J, which you have crushed and can get value from on the river anyway. Checking the turn is clearly the play because betting transforms your strong made hand into a bluff, which is usually bad. The river is a 4. Your opponent checks. You can be fairly certain he doesn’t have a stronger hand than you because he probably would have bet the river. If he has a missed gutshot, like 10-8, he is going to fold to any bet, so you can ignore when he has air. When he has a small pair or a 9, he will probably call a modest bet of around 2/5 pot. He will probably call a 2/3-pot bet with Q-10 or Q-J. So, his calling range is something like Q-J, Q-10, J-9, 10-9, 9-8, 9-7, 9-6, J-J, 10-10, 8-8, 7-7, 6-6 and 5-5. Most of those hands are weaker than a queen, so I would tend to bet around 2/5 pot.

For another example, you raise Q
-J
to 3BBs out of your 300BB stack from middle position and the big blind calls. The flop is 10
-8
-4
. Your opponent checks, you bet 5BBs. The turn is the 9
.

Your opponent checks and you bet 12BBs. He calls, the river brings the 7
and he checks. Your opponent will call basically any bet with a flush. He will call most large bets with a jack. He will probably call a small bet with a 6, a set or two pair, and will fold with a pair or less. In this case I would ignore all hands containing a 6, as those are unlikely given the way the hand played out. I would also discount all sets except nines and sevens. Most likely your opponent would have raised a flush on the turn, so you can discount that. That leaves hands with a jack and two pair. He will probably call a bet with A-J, K-J, Q-J, J-10, J-9, J-8, 8-6, 7-6, 9-9, 7-7, 10-9, 10-8, 10-7, 9-8 and 9-7. So, we have nine combinations of straights and seven combinations of weaker holdings. Some hands are more likely than others because your hand and the board account for a queen, jack, 10, 9, 8 and 7, but we will ignore this for simplicity and assume all hands are equally likely. I would make a larger bet here for two main reasons. First, the majority of his range consists of hands that will call a large bet, and second, you win more money when he calls larger bets. So, I would tend to make a pot-sized bet here, fully expecting him to call with all jacks and some sixes. You might even get lucky and see him check-raise a slow-played flush, winning you a ton of chips.